It’s no secret that rising import tariffs have affected the U.S. automotive industry, but one area that hasn’t seen much impact from it is auto insurance premiums. According to Insurify, that could change this year.

The insurance shopping website initially projected a 1% increase in the annual cost of full-coverage car insurance this year, but it said that number could rise to 4% if tariffs continue to bump up vehicle repair and replacement costs.

Insurance pricing often lags broader economic changes due to the time needed to “collect claims data, evaluate cost trends and obtain regulatory approval for rate changes,” Insurify explained.

But the more expensive a vehicle is to repair or replace, the more insurers pay to settle those claims, and those higher costs eventually trickle down to policyholders in the form of higher premiums.

Insurify’s tariff analysis also showed that certain brands could face higher premium increases than others due to their reliance on imported vehicles and components. It listed Buick, Hyundai, Kia, BMW and Mazda, though it said vehicle owners shouldn’t expect immediate cost increases.

Another trend is also developing. according to Insurify, as repair costs exceed the cost of replacing a vehicle in many cases. It said a record 23% of auto insurance claims now result in total losses. The trend has grown in recent years due to increasingly expensive “electronics, cameras, radar sensors and advanced driver-assistance systems.”

For now, insurance premiums remain stable, but it’s a trend to watch since it might drive consumers to pursue more American-made vehicles.