U.S. new-vehicle sales, with one more month to go in 2024, are on track to best last year’s.

A Cox Automotive forecast puts November sales volume at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16 million units, up half a million from a year earlier. It projects November sales to hit 1.3 million.

Cox further expects a strong finish next month since the November election eliminated market-dampening uncertainty.

“With less uncertainty in the market, consumer confidence is moving higher, which will likely increase consumer willingness to buy a new vehicle,” said Cox Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough. “Additionally, vehicle affordability is improving, thanks to higher incentives and falling auto loan rates, which increase consumers’ ability to buy.”

Generous incentives – about 8% of the average transaction price and the highest in three and a half years – are automakers’ answer to fattened inventories, which exceeded three million units in November for the first time since the pandemic and surpassed year-ago levels by more than 675,000 units. Days’ supply rose by two days to 85, 10 days above a year ago.

Electric-vehicle sales may be supercharged through the end of the year, Cox said, as consumers take advantage of federal tax credits that the Trump administration may reduce or eliminate.

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