NADA: 5 Factors That Will Keep Used Vehicle Trade-in Values High in 2013
Orlando, Fla. – Jonathan Banks, executive automotive analyst with the NADA Used Car Guide, highlighted several factors that will keep used-vehicle prices at historically high levels this year.
“Car buyers will find 2013 another excellent year to trade-in their current vehicles for either new or previously owned cars or trucks,” Banks said at the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Convention and Expo in Orlando.
He outlined five key factors that will result in high used-vehicle prices in 2013:
• Fed policy and a highly competitive lending environment will continue to see credit standards loosen and availability grow.
• The recovery in housing and construction will pick up steam, benefiting both the economy and employment. This will help stoke demand for traditional used-car and -truck shoppers.
• Employment will continue to improve, especially toward the latter half of the year once the outcomes of the government sequester and debt ceiling extension are better known.
• With a predicted increase of 8%, the supply of units up to three years in age will grow for the first time since 2006, but even with the increase, volume will still be 25% below where it was in the three years leading up to 2009.
• While it’s expected that the recovery in new-vehicle sales will siphon off a portion of used-vehicle demand, there remains pent-up demand for those consumers who traditionally purchase only used vehicles. “As job growth continues to progressively improve, used-vehicle 'intenders' will gradually replace their current vehicles with newer, pre-owned ones, thereby helping to compensate for the loss of new-vehicle substitute demand,” Banks said.
• Taken as a collective, NADA predicts the price of units up to eight years in age will average $14,375 this year, down 0.8% from 2012’s figure of $14,500.
Compared to last year, NADA expects that prices will be softer in the first half of the year as consumers and businesses react to the expiration of the 2% payroll tax holiday and political activity surrounding the deferred federal budget sequester and the debt ceiling extension.
“Excluding last December’s inflated showing from Hurricane Sandy, used prices in the second half of the year should essentially match what was observed in 2012,” Banks said.
Last year, both the new- and used automotive markets made several notable achievements. New-vehicle sales accelerated by more than 13% in 2012, which was 500,000 more than the year’s initial consensus forecast and also the largest annual increase recorded since 1984.
“Undoubtedly, the new-vehicle sales performance in 2012 was helped along by higher used trade-in prices,” Banks added.
By NADA’s estimation, used-vehicle prices for units up to eight years in age rose by 1.2% in 2012, thereby extending a three-year run of appreciation with prices increasing by a staggering 32% since bottoming out in 2008.
More Industry

Pennsylvania Dealership Under New Retailers
The sale of the Chrysler Dodge Jeep Ram store puts a family auto group on a leaner path as first-time dealers take the helm.
Read More →
Battery Storage Takes Priority Over EVs
U.S. automakers are prioritizing battery energy stationary storage over electric-vehicle production as the consumer demand for EVs lags the rest of the world.
Read More →
Auto Dealers Feel Better But Not Great
A second-quarter Cox Automotive poll of franchised retailers and independents found better views of the current market after a good spring but anticipation of third-quarter storminess.
Read More →
New-Vehicle Sales Picture Relative
A May forecast is complicated by last spring’s trade tariff effects on auto retail. Despite continued hard realities, many consumers took advantage of ways to bite the bullet.
Read More →
Auto Group Acquires Third Nissan Rooftop
Iowa-based Coleman Automotive Group recently acquired its seventh dealership, McGrath Nissan, which it renamed Nissan of Elgin.
Read More →
April Less Affordable
Based on prices, reduced incentives and slower household income growth, consumers found it more challenging to buy new last month, Cox Automotive reported.
Read More →
Building an Extraordinary F&I Agency
Work to determine your specialized talent, because that fact will determine everything about your agency’s future.
Read More →
Recipe for Compliance
The secret to both amazing barbecue and compliance is the same: understanding the basics and committing to a process.
Read More →
EVs Getting More Attractive
A growing percentage of U.S. consumers are open to switching and fewer are adverse to the idea, according to a recently completed survey. That’s despite the end of a tax break.
Read More →
EV Sales Drop in April Following Surge
North American electric-vehicle sales were down 28% year-over-year, a sharp contrast from global EV sales growth of 6%.
Read More →