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SEARCHForecast sees adoption flattening this year due to anti-EV policies.
Despite challenges, EV adoption is still forecast to make up 26% of retail sales by 2030.
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Steady growth of electric-vehicle sales is forecasted to pause this year as the segment faces challenges from Trump administration policies.
A J.D. Power projection puts 2025 EV sales at a flat 9% of new-vehicle deliveries, or 1.2 million units. It sees the possible end of federal tax credits for EV purchases, trade tariffs, and a still-limited EV charging network as drags on adoption.
The Trump administration this week suspended a federal program to fund EV charger development across the country. Sparse charging infrastructure has been a major obstacle to mass adoption.
The EV segment will continue to get more sales from mass-market models, according to the forecast. After early adoption centered on premium EVs, mass-market offerings have grown and captured a growing percentage of the segment, from a less than 1% share in 2021 to about 3% last year, when those sold by franchised dealers rose 58% to 376,000 units.
That mass-market EV growth, along with the tax breaks, has helped reverse the cost divide between EVs and gas-powered models, according to J.D. Power, which said the average EV price as 2024 ended was $44,400, $1,000 less than a comparable gas-powered vehicle, which includes hybrids
The end of the tax credits could change that trend. This week, U.S. automakers asked that federal EV tax credits, which can total $7,500 per EV, be phased out gradually rather than stopped suddenly to help ease the transition, Bloomberg reported.
On a state level, EV adoption has been on the rise in Colorado, Florida and New York, while U.S. leader California actually fell in sales last year by 250 units.
Despite challenges, EV adoption is still forecast to make up 26% of retail sales by 2030, J.D. Power predicts.
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