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Edmunds.com: Seasonal Slowdown Expected to Begin in November

November 19, 2009
2 min to read


SANTA MONICA, Calif. – This month's new vehicle sales (including fleet sales) are expected to be 710,000 units, a 4.5 percent decrease from November 2008 and a 15.0 percent decrease from October 2009, according to Edmunds.com.

Edmunds.com analysts predict that November's Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 10.34 million, down from 10.43 in October 2009. November 2009 has 23 selling days, two less than last November. When adjusted for this difference, sales increased 3.8 percent from November 2008.

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"November is living up to its reputation for being one of the worst months of the year for car sales, so everyone is hopeful that Thanksgiving weekend will boost the numbers," said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "But automakers have already launched holiday season incentives in order to pick up the pace, and that sense of desperation suggests that bigger discounts - but smaller selection - may be available for those who wait to buy."

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors (GM) domestic nameplates is estimated to be 46.4 percent in November 2009, down from 48.6 percent in November 2008 and up from 45.1 percent in October 2009.

Edmunds.com is also tracking the market share of 2009 and 2010 model year vehicles in autumn sales, and has found that there is remarkable disparity between automakers in terms of old model year inventory. For example, fewer than 42 percent of new vehicles sold by Chrysler, General Motors, Hyundai and Nissan in October were 2010 model year, but the industry average was 59 percent.


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