New-vehicle sales are tepid despite plentiful supply and flat asking prices, Cox Automotive reported in an early July assessment that found a flat 30-day sales pace.

Inventory, at 2.8 million units as the month opened ahead of the Independence Day holiday, was up about 15% over early June but 1% below a year earlier, Cox said. The supply includes early 2026 model-year arrivals.

The inventory amounts to 82 days’ supply, up 12 days from late May when the rush of trade tariff-dodging buyers waned. Though sales were about flat in June, they fell significantly from both April and May. The pace was still up 2% year-over-year, Cox said.

It pointed out that continually shifting U.S. trade policy hasn’t yet significantly boosted manufacturer’s suggested retail prices, though many brands’ incentives have been less plentiful. 

The average June listing was $48,749, flat month-over-month though up 3% year-over-year. The average transaction price was also flat at $48,907, and incentives were also flat at about 7% of the ATP.

“Tariff negotiations have been kicked down the road for another three weeks, which means it could be the fourth quarter before we see any significant movement in overall consumer prices,” said Cox, which characterized conditions as a “delicate balance.”

“For now, patience remains a virtue, and attentive consumers may find value by tracking nuanced movements in pricing and inventory as the year progresses.”

The swelling of supply was observed across the industry. 2026 unit inventory alone is down 21% year-over-year, Cox said, pointing out that U.S. trade tariffs are especially affecting European luxury brands. 

Audi and Mercedes in particular appear to be limiting exports to the U.S., Audi having no 2026 units here so far, and Mercedes at less than 2% of available supply here being new units, according to Cox data.

In good news for bargain shoppers, many of the least expensive models are being stocked as normal, including Buicks and Chevrolets from South Korean factories and Chevrolets, Fords and Hondas from Mexico, Cox said.

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