April’s sales pace, though down both month-over-month and year-over-year, bodes well for overall 2024 new-vehicle sales to be the best since the year before the pandemic struck.

Cox Automotive says its earlier annual forecast is on target to best that of 2019 at 15.9 million units, up from 15.7 million last year.

It has April sales falling 2% year-over-year to 1.34 million units, a 7% decline from March.

The seasonally adjusted annual sales pace is headed to rise 0.2 million over 2023 and up 0.4 over March.

Cox attributed the disparity between sales volume for the month and the improved sales pace to one fewer selling day in April this year. At 25 days, that’s also two fewer than in March.

Replenished inventory and increased manufacturer incentives are helping boost sales despite still-elevated interest rates. New-vehicle supply is up 46% year-over-year, Cox said.

“Since April 2023, the new-vehicle SAAR has experienced some large swings, with an average sales pace in the mid-15 million level,” said Cox Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough. “Sales growth may be sluggish, but growth continues. And we expect these conditions to persist throughout the year.”

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