New-vehicle sales are expected to reach over 16 million this year, according to Cox Automotive. That's a nearly 2% increase from last year and would make it the best sales year since 2019. 

“Despite challenges, 2025 has been a good year for new-vehicle sales,” said Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough.

However, the December sales pace is expected to finish down from last year at 15.9 million compared to 16.8 million last December, reflecting an overall fourth-quarter market decline, according to the forecast. December sales volume, meanwhile, is forecast at about 1.5 million units, down about 4% year-over-year.

“The fourth quarter is showing the expected slowdown, as headwinds from tariffs, inflation and reduced [EV] incentives weigh on the market after nine surprisingly strong months. Still, consumer demand has kept the new-vehicle market healthy throughout 2025,” Chesbrough said. 

Cox expects General Motors to be the market leader for the fourth year in a row with a total market share of 17%, up slightly year-over-year 2024. Toyota follows closely behind with an expected market share of about 16%, up a percentage point from a year earlier. 

Looking ahead, the market watcher predicts 2026 new-vehicle sales to fall nearly 2.5% to 15.8 million due to slower economic growth, less job creation, and lack of EV tax incentives.

Though fast-changing federal policies have brought uncertainty to consumers and auto dealers, Cox said that at least this year there have been positive results for auto retail. 

"The wealth effect supported by a strong stock market boosted vehicle demand, and uncertainty about future higher prices led many potential vehicle buyers to purchase sooner rather than later," the company said, referring to rushed purchases to beat tariff-fueled inflation and the end of the federal EV tax credit.