Retail new-vehicle sales are on track for a lift this month, according to a J.D. Power forecast. 

Volume is expected to jump 4% year-over-year to about 1.2 million units. The bump would actually be higher if not for several phenomena working together to deflate sales results.

Prices reflected the uptick, the average transaction price up an estimated 2% year-over-year to $45,063.

Last June’s CDK Global software outage following auto dealer systems hackings dampened that month’s sales to the tune of about 85,000 units, pushing them into July and August, J.D. Power said. And this year, spring sales induced by consumer fears of tariff-inflated prices subtracted from what would have normally been summertime transactions.

The two forces are being compounded by automakers’ muted seasonal incentive increases as a result of the U.S. trade tariffs, according to J.D. Power.

“Instead of discounts rising as they normally would at this time of year, incentive spending has edged down to 6.1% of MSRP in July from 6.3% in January, reflecting the cost pressure that manufacturers are under due to tariffs,” said J.D. Power Data and Analytics Division President Thomas King.

Average automaker incentives are an estimated $3,051 this month, up about 2% year-over-year, though flat as a percentage of manufacturer’s suggested retail price, J.D. Power said. 

A fourth complicating factor lies in accelerated electric-vehicle transactions this month as consumers move to lock in federal tax breaks scheduled to expire in October. Many of those sales would otherwise have happened later this year or next year, King said.

Retailer profit per unit is projected to increase 1% year-over-year to $2,257.

All factors considered, July buyers are poised to spend more than they ever have in July for new vehicles at nearly $50 billion, up 11% year-over-year and making for July’s highest-ever average monthly finance payment at $742, J.D. Power said.

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