Defying the odds of inflated prices for cars and many other commodities, along with high interest rates, U.S. new-vehicle sales are on track for their best year since before the pandemic.

Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book estimates a 2% year-over-year sales increase to 15.9 million units, slightly exceeding the 15.7 million it projected as the year started.

Replenished inventory paired with generous incentives coaxed more consumers to trade, as pent-up demand met improved conditions, which also included a series of interest rate cuts this fall, the first in four years. Political certainty following the November election added to a late-year buying surge.

Cox forecasts the December sales pace alone to be up more than half a million units year-over-year to about 16.5 million units.

“Many buyers who thought it best to wait to get the best deal are realizing that now is the time to buy before new administration policy changes are implemented,” said Cox Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough in a press release.

He pointed out that the incoming Trump administration has targeted elimination of federal electric-vehicle tax credits and plans to impose stiff tariffs on trade with China, both factors many consumers see as the makings for higher vehicle prices.

Cox estimates EV sales, aided by the jump in consumers taking advantage of the tax credits, will set a record for the year at about 1.3 million units, though EV market leader Tesla’s sales are expected to be down for the first time since 2014.

Among brands benefiting from the sales surge, General Motors is coming out the biggest winner, according to Cox. The Detroit automaker hung on to the top sales position this year with a projected 2.7 million units sold, up 4% year-over-year. 

Cox said all major automakers enjoyed sales gains except Stellantis and Tesla, though it said Honda increased its market share by half a point on 20%-plus sales gains on its lowest priced models.

Looking to next year, Cox predicts new-vehicle sales to grow about 3%.

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