This year’s new-vehicle sales pace is on track to hit 15.1 million, up 0.8% year-over-year and also up over March, according to Cox Automotive analysis of preliminary April results.

April sales are forecasted to surpass year-earlier volume by 2.3% to 1.3 million, Cox said, though it expects volume to be off March results by 6.5%. Still, overall results point to strong sales despite larger economic shakiness.

“Relatively strong sales in the wake of rising interest rates and worsening economic headwinds suggests there remains some pent-up demand,” said senior Cox economist Charlie Chesbrough. “Product availability has improved substantially over this time last year. Dealer lots are no longer empty, so there is far more selection for vehicle shoppers that may have been waiting to buy a particular model or configuration.” 

As April started, new-vehicle inventory was 70% above availability a year earlier, Cox said, and days’ supply was in the mid-50s, up almost 60% year-over-year. Supply ended March at a two-year high.

Cox does forecast a sales slowdown in the second half of the year due to rising interest rates. It expects that more manufacturer incentives and vehicles sold for fleets should help offset that effect.

LEARN MORE: New-Vehicle Inventory at Two-Year High