MENU
SEARCHForecast says widespread use at least a decade away.
Drive Pilot by Mercedes is a an example of the level-three automous vehicle systems that the forecast says will make up more than 30% of global new-vehicle sales by 2035.
IMAGE: Mercedes
Autonomously controlled vehicles proliferating roads won’t be a reality for at least another decade, a new report says.
S&P Global Mobility’s forecast shows that ultimately, self-driving vehicles and what it calls mobility-on-demand, will be a reality. Widespread use, though, won’t happen for a while.
Expectations for the technology haven’t yet been realized, it says, and in the next 10 years will largely be limited to fleet robotaxis in some urban areas and today’s driver-assist systems that allow only limited autonomy as the driver stays in active control.
For now, vehicles that operate independently won’t be “publicly available before 2035," the report says, “and probably for some time after that," said associate director of S&P’s autonomy practice, Jeremy Carlson in a press release.
About five years ago, the thinking was that the transition would happen much quicker, as have so many other technological advances that have many people’s heads spinning at times to keep up with all the changes.
“S&P Global Mobility presents a more realistic outlook amid this moderated pace of progress while also publishing new data on the intersection of autonomy and mobility-as-a-service.”
The report says that nearer-term development will focus on automated rather than autonomous. Automakers will achieve at least 31% of global new-vehicle sales of models with levels 2-plus and 3 by 2035 – with the driver supervising but hands off the steering wheel or disengaging in specific situations à la Drive Pilot by Mercedes, it says.
“Their functionality also complements driving today rather than fully replacing the driver, making consumer adoption less of a challenge,” Carlson says. “The next several years of wider deployment across brands and vehicle platforms will be a boon for automakers selling these optional features as well as suppliers who continue to build scale and a strong foundation for the future.”
It predicts that less than 6% of light vehicles sold in 2035 will have level-four functioning, with advanced parking features. It said that autonomous fleet vehicles operating today in cities like San Francisco can be “confounded by complex traffic scenarios,” referring to a recent traffic jam in the City by the Bay caused by Waymo taxis.
Originally posted on Auto Dealer Today
A growing percentage of U.S. consumers are open to switching and fewer are adverse to the idea, according to a recently completed survey. That’s despite the end of a tax break.
Read More →
North American electric-vehicle sales were down 28% year-over-year, a sharp contrast from global EV sales growth of 6%.
Read More →
Recent survey data shows that the overall demand for auto loans is down, but the demand for subprime loans is up as consumers face economic uncertainty and affordability pressures.
Read More →
The Mitsubishi location moves from one Texas automotive group to another, continuing this year’s spate of brisk buy-sell activity.
Read More →
As part of its 2030 business plan, Mitsubishi's North America arm will soon open its first 'gallery' store in Tennessee, where customers can learn about the brand, vehicles and technology.
Read More →
Just weeks before President Trump is set to meet with the Chinese president, two U.S. senators proposed a bill with the aim of protecting Americans’ data.
Read More →
A study of Q1 used-vehicle sales shows many consumers are looking to minimize fuel costs but aren’t willing to go all electric and no longer have a tax break incentive to do so.
Read More →
A recent study suggests expectant parents are feeling the burden of bad credit more than other demographics when it comes to buying a new car.
Read More →
Dealers should aim to build a positive work environment, helping employees execute an efficient experience, from their online research to the final delivery of the vehicle.
Read More →
A cloudy April forecast was expected due to last April’s sales surge in anticipation of U.S. trade tariff-inflated prices. Meanwhile, automakers pumped up incentives to address today’s consumer wallet woes.
Read More →