Retail new-vehicle sales are on track for a flat month, J.D. Power and GlobalData forecasters estimate.

Adjusted for selling days, deliveries of just over a million units in September include an unusual surge in electric-vehicle sales as consumers squeezed in purchases to secure expiring federal EV tax credits.

“The biggest driver of September’s strong sales pace is temporarily inflated demand for electric vehicles,” said J.D. Power’s data and analytics division president, Thomas King, in the joint forecast.

The companies estimate EV transactions will make up 12% of the month’s sales, up 2½ percentage points year-over-year.

Nonelectrified retail sales have gone in the other direction, falling about 3% year-over-year, according to the forecasters, who blame average vehicle price inflation, limited discounts, and high auto loan costs. They put the average September transaction price at $45,795, up about 3% year-over-year.

Average per-vehicle manufacturer incentives, though, are estimated at $3,116, up about 1% from August but essentially flat from a year earlier, as is its 6% share of manufacturer’s suggested retail price, according to the forecast. 

The average monthly auto loan payment this month is an estimated $756, up about 3% year-over-year and a record for the month of September. To better afford the stiff cost, an estimated 11% of financed purchasers will be on 84-month terms, the second highest share for a September, the companies forecast.

Scarce non-EV incentives are estimated to be just about 5% of MSRP, down about a percentage point from a year earlier, and that’s weakening sales volume, King said.

“Collectively, these pricing dynamics are helping manufacturers preserve profitability amidst tariff-related cost pressure but at the expense of higher sales volumes.”

Dealers are overall faring well for the month, according to the forecast, which estimates retailer profit per unit at $2,240, including finance-and-insurance sales, up half a percentage point from August and about 4% year-over-year.

King noted that the bright side for dealers includes greater auto loan access, the used-vehicle market, and lowered interest rates, though Cox Automotive earlier noted that despite the Federal Reserve lowering its benchmark rate last week, auto loan rates have gone in the other direction this year, though both reports put the average down year-over-year.

A dark cloud growing larger, though, comes in a 1½ percentage point increase in the number of buyers upside down on their trade-ins, the J.D. Power-Global Data forecast estimates, or a sobering 26%.

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