EV Forecast Partly Sunny
Adoption slower than thought this year, but critical mass seen on the horizon.
Since leases make up the majority of new EV transactions due to tax breaks for leased models, J.D. Power expects a sales surge as leases are returned.
Pixabay/Joenomias
U.S. electric-vehicle sales, it should come as no surprise, haven’t met expectations so far this year.
After a lackluster first half of 2024, J.D. Power has revised its forecast down from earlier expectations for the purely electric vehicles known as battery-electric.
As the year started, the company forecasted EV market share reaching 12% this year, but after seven months of sales, it adjusted its outlook to 9%, or 1.2 million units.
Even with slower growth than formerly expected, J.D. Power sees EV sales achieving a significant 36% of retail sales by 2030 and a majority of 58% by 2035. Through July of this year, it calculates purely electric-vehicle sales up 35,000 units year-over-year.
Though affordability is less of an issue with EVs than it has been – J.D. Power says affordability along with availability of accessible models improved for two straight months and that many EVs are more affordable than gas-powered equivalent models – other roadblocks are still in the way. A principal one is charging availability, as public infrastructure can be spotty and sometimes unreliable. It also counts competition from hybrids as an obstacle.
The forecaster anticipates that returned leased EVs – leasing makes up a majority of EV sales due to federal tax breaks for leases – will spark a surge in new EV transactions, as it says 94% of batter-electric consumers indicate likeliness to consider another BEV as their next model.
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Originally posted on Auto Dealer Today
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