2024 will bring modest improvement in consumer affordability and slow vehicle sales growth as the automotive industry is poised to experience a more normal year than any since the pandemic and a return to a buyer’s market, Cox Automotive forecasts.

After more than three years of dramatic market swings brought by the global disruptor, the industry will slowly settle into a steadier pace. With supply chains stable and inventories expected to achieve prepandemic normals, new-vehicle prices should fall slightly, Cox says.

Used-vehicle and fixed-operations margins should continue to be robust, according to the forecast. But new-vehicle sales will have the obstacles of manufacturer suggested retail price and invoice price bumps due to supply and labor costs and more expensive models.

Vehicle supplies should hit nearly three million units – triple the number during the supply-chain crisis centered on precious chips. Incentives and discounts are therefore expected to continue rising and vehicle prices falling, though moderately. But Cox doesn’t predict the record incentive levels seen in 2019, when discounting eclipsed 10% of transaction prices.

It predicts less than 2% growth in new-vehicle sales this year to 15.6 million units, with the retail segment flat and fleet sales up, though by less than last year.

Used-vehicle sales will also be flat at less than 1% growth to 36.2 million units, 19.2 million of that retail, Cox says.

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