Though electric vehicles aren’t taking off as fast as legacy automakers had thought they would, U.S. adoption is growing, and at least one prognosticator says EVs will become much more mainstream in just a few years.

A report by J.D. Power predicts EVs will make up nearly a quarter of new-vehicle sales by 2026.

The data provider points out that various factors impact EV sales volume, from price and incentives fluctuations to available models. Therefore, temporary shifts can result in unusually large short-term numbers.

EVs hit an 8% U.S. new-vehicle market share for the first time in the third quarter, still well behind that of Europe, for instance, where battery-electric registrations reached 14% market share year-to-date in October. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer interest in EV purchases was flat in AAA’s latest annual poll.

But based on current adoption rates, J.D. Power predicts U.S. EV market share will hit 13% by the end of next year and 24% by the close of 2026, despite temporary slowdowns during the period.

It said the launch of more mass-market EVs will be a crucial factor in the upswing, since luxury EVs still dominate the segment. Tesla, which occupies that premium space, is still the U.S. EV market leader.

The higher price tags of typical EVs, along with limited public charging infrastructure, are consistently cited as a top reason consumers opt for hybrids or gas-powered models.

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