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Used wholesale and retail prices are starting to stabilize in July (although at a remarkably high plateau), but new car sales are still on a rollercoaster as the chip shortage is finally showing up in the new sales numbers.
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Wholesale values continue to decline after a monstrous 22-consecutive weeks of gains; however, sales conversion rates were also down last week. We anticipate that dealers will begin gradually and moderately reducing their floors.
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The June Retention Index increased again, although at the slower rate, and broke yet another record, reaching 166.0 points.
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Wholesale values are finally starting to simmer down but make no mistake, supply channels haven’t been restored and the market remains strong.
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Another week of gains for the exceptionally strong wholesale market; however, that pace has slowed tremendously.
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Wholesale prices remain strong, however there are signs of softening in the market this week, as prices of newer used vehicles seem to be hitting a ceiling.
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The May Retention Index showed another increase and broke yet another record, reaching 159.6 points, a 7.1 point (or 4.7%) increase from April (152.4).
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All nine car segments reported gains last week, however, 0.8% is the lowest weekly gain the overall car segment has seen in 15-weeks.
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It is now clear that like 2020, 2021 will also not have typical seasonality patterns as the market is going through a rapid increase in wholesale values.
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New inventory is not expected to see improvement until the third quarter of this year, so values are expected to remain at elevated levels throughout the summer.
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